There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Thursday, August 20, 2015

On Sabbatical


Dear all.

I have taken up an assignment to manually back test and fine tune a trading method.The work came through an NRI reader of the blog. I will be able to get some good exposure working for an overseas trading firm. The remuneration is also good that this will upgrade my status from Below Poverty Line trader.
I expect the work to last for at least three months.Till then there will not be any updates. Will be back blogging as soon as possible. Thank  you very much for supporting me all these years.

Take Care and Trade well.  

Thursday, August 13, 2015

13082015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Very difficult to day trade today. After 12.30 it was too choppy and market took all the stops from day traders.Morning up move was difficult to capture and normally I would have waited for a second leg up.NS BRN did not support.I will try a TST on second test of BRN which stalled at NS BRN. Will end as a scratch. ( Ignore the first arrow down. Forgot up arrow at BRN)A short at the range high would have yielded good profit but short below DO will end as a scratch. Difficult to capture up move. Short into the fluid also shaken outbefore reaching the target

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

12082015

Nifty gaped down below PDL . Gave a BPB short signal. Considering Trend gap and a gap of more than 50 points I would have skipped it. Up move from BRN was too quick and without a retest. I will miss that also. Then there were three TST opportunities which moved well. BOF of BRN was not attractive. Sell at the flip also difficult to take and I would have taken short on the break of BRN

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

11082015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
I am busy with some other work and will not be trading for few days. I will try to post charts with hindsight analysis if I get time in the evening. Today I could see only two opportunities. A TST short at range high. I may not short BPB due to NS RN. I would have taken the last long. It did not move well

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

05082015

Nifty moved above PDH after open and stayed within a tight range all the day. tried a short on BOF of Range high. Scratched.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

04082015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Announcement day. Waited till the market stabilized. Short on BOF of PDL/PDC/DO. Shaken out of the trade. Could not get the second leg down. Expected a retest of the bottom and missed the up move. Only one trade

Monday, August 3, 2015

03082015

Nifty traded within the previous day closing range most of the day. Attempted a long which was a stop out. Missed the breakdown due to this. Did not attempt any other trade

Friday, July 31, 2015

31072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty tried to move up above PDH/BRN and got rejected. But was not able to move below DO and IRL. Long on break of BRN. Stalled at NS BRN for a while and moved up. Exit around 8560. Type 1 trend day

Thursday, July 30, 2015

30072015

Nifty gaped up above PDH and BRN. Long on BPB of BRN. Exited a BO above RN failed. Missed the down move. My order did not get filled. On expiry day play option strikes. Expiry days  are very quite unlike earlier. I wonder why.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

29072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Could not trade last two days.Market traded within the previous day closing range the whole day. Tried two BOF trades. BOF of IRL and IRH. Both were scratch trades.Tomorrow expiry day.

Friday, July 24, 2015

24072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty gaped down below PDL and traded in a range for a long time. A short at IRH did not move for a long time . Scratched.Traded in a  lower range after the break down. PP below RN gave 20 points

Thursday, July 23, 2015

23072015

Nifty moved up and failed to move above PDH on open. IR formed. Shorted IRL as it was making lower highs inside IR and twice failed to move above PDC and RN. Bounce from BRN was quick and gave back some points waiting for another test. Another short on TST of PDC and BOF of IRL. Shorted below the MC.Covered on BOF of BRN.Price fell again and gave a BOF signal. Long covered at MC break at IRL again. Missed the quick fall

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

22072015

Nifty gaped down below PDL. Outside trend gap. Stalled at NS BRN area and reversed. Thought RN-PDC confluence will stop the move. Could enter late at the pull back. Excellent momentum and fluid gave confidence. Exited at the end of fluid. TRAP pattern gave a signal to long again. TP near RN. Expected a break down at the fag end. It did not happen

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

21072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty opened within previous day closing range and tried to move above PDH. Rejection was too fast and I could not capture. Hit BRN and climbed back to the range. Did not attempt long. Short at PDH. Covered when rejected at Range low. Tried a long which failed. A PP short gave good points. TP at RN

Monday, July 20, 2015

20072015

Nifty opened near PDC and sold . Broke PDL and bounced from BRN. Short on break of BRN as BPB. Adjusted stop too soon and shaken out of trade. Stopped out. Another short on BOF of BRN again. Covered when bounced from LOD. Long above range high. Covered when price bounced from PDC

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

14072015

Nifty opened near PDC and moved down. expected a range move after yesterday evening quick up move. Price reversed testing RN. Waited for a retest and missed the long. Long on BOF of LOD. Exited earlier on consolidation. Short on BOF of RN/HOD. Moved well.Covered at the end of fluid at range low. No other trades

Monday, July 13, 2015

Lot Size


Lot size of Derivatives will be increased wef from Nov 2015 contracts. Lot size of NF could be 60, I think.Link to SEBI circular.

13072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Nifty opened above PDH and failed to move up. Went short on BOF of PDH. PDC was close and gave support for a long time. I held as the risk was just 5 points finally it broke down. But supported at yesterdays last impulse low. I suspected a range within last impulse of the previous day. Long on BOF range low above PDC. Never expected a move like this. Then it was a channel upmove. tried a short and stopped out

Thursday, July 9, 2015

09072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
I was out of sync with the market. In hindsight analysis, most of the time price was within range low and DO.It was a 20 point range. I did not notice DO till the end. Attempted 5 trades. Nothing worked. All ended as stop out and scratches.

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

08072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty gaped down and refused to go beyond first candle. IR formed. Short on BOF of IRH/RN. Trade moved well. Covered when second attempt at 8370 failed. It fell another 20 points and got supported at 8350. Skipped the first BOF. Second one moved well . Covered on rejection from IRL area after second leg. Short on BOF of BRN failed and bounced from MSP. Stopped out.

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

07072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis     
As expected a consolidation day. Went short on BOF of PDH. Expected a range within the last impulse. But Nifty refused to move down. Scratched. Could not long on BOF of range low. Short on BOF of PDH/RN. Trade moved well. TP at BRN. No other trades.

Monday, July 6, 2015

06072015

Nifty gaped down and failed to move beyond the open. Missed many long opportunities during the day. But could get two good trades. BOF of PDL short and a PP above IRH long. Stopped out on a short trade at PDH. Missed BOF of IRH,Later BOF of BRN, A TRAP and the BPB of PDH. Nifty is not bothered about Greece it seems.

Friday, July 3, 2015

03072015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis    
Nifty opened a little below PDL and bounced back. Long on BPB of PDC. Closed when price failed to move above BRN 8500. Went short on the breakdown of PDH. Price bounced from earlier swing low and scratched it. BOF of range low moved well but only after stopping me out.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

02072015


This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis   
Nifty traded within the previous day last impulse. Price action within the range was too choppy. The move up and down were like channels. Attempted three trades. Two longs and one short. Nothing worked.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

30062015


This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Nifty opened within previous day rage and moved up above PDH. Got rejected at RN. Then it was a BW around PDH. Attempted two longs and a short . Both the BOF trades at the bottom of the range worked well. A mid level short ended as a scratch

Monday, June 29, 2015

29062015

Not traded for few days. A family member was sick and was in hospital. Now discharged but need bed rest for a while. Posts will be irregular for the next two weeks. Nifty gaped down and moved down . Did not attempt a short here as I expected a pull back. I had an order at RN, but price reversed retesting the pull back high. Missed a good move. Long on BOF of BRN/IRL. Covered at RN. Another long above after a TRAP pattern. Covered above BRN as price was not showing strength

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Scaling Up



I consider trading as a skill. Like any other skill, time is an important factor in trader development. It is very important to focus on skill rather than money during the initial stages even though the ultimate aim is to make money trading. If we cannot make consistent money with a single lot of Nifty, why trade big and lose more? First build the foundation. Fast growth is overrated

If you have been trading for a few months and the results are quite positive, you can think about scaling up. This has to be done slowly and steadily without affecting the psychology. Recently a reader wrote to me about this and we prepared a detailed plan. Here is it. Use this as a template to create your own plan

Initial Capital  66000/- (3 Months) Position 1 Lot.
Risk Per Trade 0.50% inclusive of commission 66000*.50/100= 330/-              (66000)
Maximum Risk cap for the day 3 losing trades 1.50% = 990/-
Maximum allowed loss in a week = 5% =Rs 3300/-
Maximum allowed loss per month=10% =  Rs 6600/- per month

Earn at least 200 points per month for 3 months continuously
Profit accumulated should be 200*3*25= 15000/-. Make capital to 132000/-  (Add 51000)
Position 50. Risk per trade 660/-  Loss per day  1980/-
Weekly Loss 5% @ 6600/-. Monthly Loss 13200/-

Earn 200 points per month for 3 months continuously
Profit accumulated 200*3*50 =  30000/-. Make capital to 198000/-                 (Add 36000)
Position 75. Risk per trade 990/-  Loss per day  2970/-
Weekly Loss 5% @ 9900/-. Monthly Loss 19800/-

Earn 200 points per month for 3 months continuously                                       (Add 21000)
Profit accumulated 200*3*75 =  45000/-. Make capital to 264000/-
Position 100. Risk per trade 1320/-  Loss per day  2970/-
Weekly Loss 5% @ 13200/-. Monthly Loss 26400/-

Earn 200 points per month for 3 months continuously
Profit accumulated 200*3*100 =  60000/-. Make capital to 330000/-                 (Add 6000)
Position 125. Risk per trade 1650/-  Loss per day  4950/-
Weekly Loss 5% @ 16500/-. Monthly Loss 33000/-

Go on adding an additional lot for every Rs 66000 of capital addition.If profit is less than 200 point a month do not count that month for adding lots.If makes a loss in a month reduce position size to half for the next month.Roll back to old volume only after earning 200+ points that month

Total capital to be brought in is Rs 180000/- if everything works well. After a while out of every 66000/- addition in capital , one third goes as Income Tax.Add another one third to the capital account and spend the rest.
Your suggestions and inputs are always welcome

Friday, June 19, 2015

19062015

Nifty gaped up above PDH. IR formed. Long on BPB of BRN. TP on FTC above 8220.Another long on BOF of BRN moved up breaking the early high. TP when price stalled at NS RN. Market appears to be  very bullish. Every dip is being bought. Stay with the bias.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

17062015



This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Could not trade today.After yesterdays vertical move some pull back was due. Price pulled back to MSP breaking PDC/PDH and RN. Even if somebody shorted break of PDH, market gave opportunity to get out. There was a long signal on BOF of PDC/PDH.Trade went to its target Range high. BOF of range high also hit the target PDC. But after a deep pull back. Long at PDH gave a nice move to 8120. There was another opportunity short on FTC, below MSP and below BRN

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

16062015


Nifty opened below PDC and BRN. Went short on TST of BRN on pull back with stop above PDC. I was not very confident about the trade . It gave 20 points. Avoided short into PDL. RN/NS RN was another barrier. Down move was not showing strength. Avoided trade into the strong flip on first BOF of PDL. Second one was BOF of LOD/RN and PDL. Long worked well. Shaken out prematurely due to micro managing.

Monday, June 15, 2015

15062015


This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty opened within previous day range and moved up. Missed the up move. Fall was also fast. Missed it also. Attempted a late short and got  stopped out. Long on the next BOF of PDH,PDC,BRN.Could not capture the full move . Shaken out at 8019. Attempted a short when price fell back into the range. This trade also exited early. No other trades

Thursday, June 11, 2015

11062015

Nifty gaped up above PDH and got rejected. Missed the short there. Could have shorted aiming for a gap closure move through the Fluid. Never thought it will break the three strong levels. PDC, Flip and BRN. Short on BPB of BRN and could hold all the way to 8000. Another short at MSP which was also NS RN also worked well. Closed when it bounced from 8000. Bounce was short lived and a TRAP pattern gave another short signal. Could not capture this

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

10062015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Could not trade the last two days.Nifty opened near PDC and zoomed breaking PDH. Could not capture the move. Avoided BOF of BRN as the initial move was very strong. Nifty made a BW around BRN within the pull back corrective wave.Went short on BOF of range high. Covered on a TRAP like pattern when it climbed above BRN. Long on BPB of Range High. TP at RN 8150. On hind sight FTC at RN/NS RN was a trade that moved well

Friday, June 5, 2015

05062015

Nifty gaped down below PDC. IR formed. Went long on BOF of IRL. It was a grinding move up for a long time and finally took off. TP on FTC above momentum up move. I was hoping to go long at PDH on pull back. It quickly broke PDH, PDC, IRH and RN and bounced above these levels equally fast.Long on retest of IRH. Covered on TST of HOD. Final BOF of HOD and TST BRN was at lightning speed and I could not capture it

Thursday, June 4, 2015

04062015


This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Nifty opened within previous day range and moved up. BOF of PDC was too quick to capture. Skipped BOF of IRL as the trade was CT and against a quick down move. Shorted BOF of PDC,RN,IRH. But I was shaken out. Shorted below the IRL and it moved well. BOF of LOD was also a good trade.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

03062015


Nifty opened below PDL/PDC and pulled back. I had a sell order at 8220. Price reversed before that without me .I did not chase as BRN was near. Went short on price pull back to BRN. This one gave a nice profit. Covered when it bounced from BRN 8100. Then the last impulse acted as a range and NF traded within it rest of the day. No other trades

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

02062015

Nifty opened near PDC and fell below PDL. Skipped the BPB due to RBI announcement. BRN was also very near. Went long on BOF of BRN as price has already fallen three legs from the open. Trade moved well. TP when it failed to move above BRN. Missed the short. Another long at BRN which was also  a double bottom failed and stopped out. Missed the next down move
URD has posted few videos on his site. Excellent work. Please do watch. 

Friday, May 29, 2015

29052015

Nifty opened within previous day range. Missed the morning move. I was not confident about the BPB of PDH-RN but it moved well. Short below BRN failed. Hesitated to take the BOF of BRN as I thought HOD will resist again . Missed a nice move. If market trends on expiry it could be a manipulative move and price reverses strongly the next day

Thursday, May 28, 2015

28052015

Expiry day. Price tried to move above RN and got rejected. Waited for further confirmation and shorted below PDH on BPB. Then I had to go out for some urgent work. So I kept SL at breakeven and left. When I came back it was trading below BRN. Finally managed to cover at 4280. Escaped from getting stopped out around 8320 as I was not watching market live

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

27052015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty gaped below PDL. Outside trend gap. Did not give a clear FTC at LOD. Avoided long above IRH as PDL was very near. Went long on retest after the BOF of PDL. Covered on BOF of HOD. Missed the next up move as I was not confident to go long agaist that quick fall as Daily was in declie mode

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

26052015

Price opened below PDL and tried to move up. Did not attempt a short below IRL as the pull back moved above PDL. Shorted on retest and held for a long time. Price moved only after my exit. Expected a BOF of LOD but price moved up after a TST. Missed

Monday, May 25, 2015

25052015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Could not capture any of the moves. Nifty jumped my short order below PDL and did not execute the shorts at IRH and BRN. Did not attempts longs as bias was down

Monday, May 11, 2015

11052015

Type 1 trend day through a beautiful fluid. Order at PDH did not get filled so long above IRH with SL below RN. Shaken out of the trade at 8280 by a CPB. Another long above BRN which moved to the end of fluid. Tried a short trade as FTC on the next test.Covered when range low refused to break.Missed the sudden BOF up move

Thursday, May 7, 2015

07052015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis    
Outside trend gap. Hesitated and missed a FTC opportunity on BOF of IRL. Did not go long of BPB of PDC/PDL . Shorted below BRN and covered at range low. Next trade BOF of range low failed. Could not get the final up move

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

06052015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis   
Nifty gaped down below PDC and sold. Could not capture the morning down move. Thought of shorting TST of BRN. But stayed away as I expected some consolidation. Short on BOF of BRN. Covered at RN. Then it was chop around RN

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

05052015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis   
Nifty opened within previous day range. Went long above IRH. Stopped out. BOF short at PDH gave 20 points. Another short after a TRAP like pattern on break of range low moved well. But gave back most of the profit sitting through the pull back which was quick. No other trades

Monday, May 4, 2015

04052015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Nifty opened near PDH and tried to move down but failed. Long BPB of PDH. Covered when second push failed. Long on BOF of BRN. TP near HOD. Attempted a short at HOD and it failed. Final PP trade moved well. Daily now is in rally mode

Thursday, April 30, 2015

30042015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis   
Nifty gaped down below PDL and moved down. Missed the BPB of PDL/BRN as I suspected there will be an attempt to move above BRN being expiry. Price hit RN and stalled. Expected a pull back and went long. trailed and exited when price got rejected from BRN. went short below the swing low and exited at RN 8150. Stayed away after that

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

28042015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Too much volatility and it is becoming difficult to manage the trades. Getting shaken out of good trades due to deep pull backs. Attempted three trades and could not capture the full potential even though trade direction was right. Attempt trades only at the structural edges
Tomorrow I will not be trading and updating the blog. Here at Thrissur we are celebrating the most colorful temple festival of Kerala. Click here to watch a small video

Monday, April 27, 2015

27042015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Could not capture any of the good moves. Missed the entire fall and next up move. TST short at PDL stopped out. Tried a reentry and had to scratch it. Long at LOD also ended up as a stop out

Saturday, April 25, 2015

25042015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis  
Nifty opened near PDC and fell. Short on BPB test of PDL. Trade gave 20 point something. No other trades as I stayed away expecting some volatility due to infy results. On hind sight there were two good opportunities. A TST of PDL and a BOF of BRN at the fag end. It is difficult to take the last one

Thursday, April 23, 2015

23042015

Nifty gaped up near BRN 8500 and came down. Missed a TST long at PDH. BPB long on break of BRN avoided as I felt NF needed some consolidation. Short below BRN and the trade moved beyond the target PDH/PDC.TP when price bounced from NS BRN. Later attempted two trades. A BO at BRN and a long on the BOF. Both stopped out. Could not capture the next two good moves