There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

17122014

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis
Nifty opened below PDL Tried to go up and got rejected from PDC. Shorted on break of IRL. Covered on FTC at 8020. Could not get the long trade. Tried a short on second test of BRN. Trade did not move as expected. Long on BOF of range Low. Covered when price failed to stay above BRN. Then it was a chop inside the range.Very difficult to manage trades within the risk level due to high volatility

27 comments:

  1. Sir Today why u no long above near about 11.35 bar ???

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  2. I noticed that TRAP kind of pattern. Hesitated as price has already made a 50 point CT move

    ST

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    Replies
    1. "Hesitated as price has already made a 50 point CT move" Thanks ST. Is this the reason for you to looked for long trades (Deep pullback) ?

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    2. No price climbed to a new range. Higher one
      So buy low and sell high

      ST

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  3. Hi ST
    Although the trade did not move as expected, what were the expectations for your second trade?( Short on second TST of BRN)

    Thanks
    TBP

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    Replies
    1. Market had retraced the entire down move from DO. I expected the trend may assert
      Thought it will break MSP and move to RN. But the bonce established the higher range

      ST


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    2. Normally you wait for breaking BO bar which is 12:27 bar in this case. What was your thought process for not waiting.

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    3. It was not clear what the market was going to do. I went short assuming a fall that can retrace all the up move
      When price bounced from 8060 it became clear that 8060-8100 is going to be the new range. I expected an up move and test of 8100.So there was no point in holding the short hence scratched. But price fell again and gave a BOF long which I took

      ST

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  4. Hi ST,
    My trades
    http://tradingdecisionpoints.blogspot.in/2014/12/12172014.html

    Missed BOF range low long since I was already short.

    thanks
    Kishore

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    Replies
    1. Nice trades. Well managed
      I think now you are able to see the structure well during live market and where to look for trades.
      Execution consistency may take time

      ST

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  5. Sir, in an earlier posts, you had mentioned that you are a single lot trader. What does that mean?

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    Replies
    1. Nifty futures are traded in market lots. It was 50 earlier and now 25

      ST

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    2. Do you mean you trade in just one lot, for each of your trades

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    3. I was trading one old lot. 50 Nifty.
      Now most of the time taking positions with 4 lots that is 100 Nos

      ST

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  6. Hi ST,
    Do you plan to trade next week?

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  7. ST,

    I mostly miss bpb yesterdays low./high trades. when earlier days have more than 120 points move. what to consider for taking or not taking it?

    Why not shoretd below 11.06 , 11.09 or 11.18 bar last msp trap? with 50 point move retraced yesterday we shorted with trap pattern. how it is different today?

    Secondly why not allowing pullback for trailing at 13.33 exit? how do we trail . such strong move.. normally we allow small pullback and then move sl to pvt low there .. what was the reson to exit here in 3rd trade.. ?



    Thanks and Regards

    Bharat

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is very difficult to make rules for all these. When market ranges, trade ranges. When it trends trail the trend
      If there is panic or euphoria , trade it. Price action trading is very discretionary and trade will depend on the traders feel and read of the market at the time. There are only thumb rules and broad guidelines.

      Yesterday it was a jump from the bottom and there was no follow up. Then it gave a good location to short within the risk.Today market was making HH and HL and looked like a trend up. So I waited .Did not get any logical location to short also. Further we have to pay attention to the kind of price action. Compare the charts of yesterday and today. Today it was chop with lot of tails and overshoots where as it was neat and clean yesterday

      Why should one trail at 13.33. It is an exit signal. Price tested HOD, PDC and failed to break it. It was a BOF of DO and BRN 8100. It is a short signal as per the method. As I was holding a long, I exited. You have forgotten the very basics of the method.Basically the method is a range trading system. When you see a strong trend you trail it

      ST


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  8. Yes ST,
    Mind has started separating the different blocks in the chart .
    Price movement is not random any more.
    Thanks to you for the structure .

    thanks
    Kishore

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  9. Hi ST, Question marked on chart
    http://i.imgur.com/r4we8R8.png

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    Replies
    1. RN and BRN are not dynamic DPs like other levels. They are option strikes and will always have some influence
      TST at MSP is a short, but you have to see other factors. 8060 was a strong flip which held well
      Price may fall and find support at BRN and move up again. Trade is risky

      ST

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  10. ST,
    Why no short below 10:39 bar as BOF RN?

    thanks
    Kishore

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    Replies
    1. I do not consider RN as DP and do not initiate trades there unless it doubles as a range extreme
      These levels are used only to manage trades

      ST


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  11. where to initiate a short trade in absorption pattern

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    Replies
    1. It cannot be traded as a pattern. If it happens at a DP or range high, it will appear as TST or FTC

      ST

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