There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

09122014

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis
Nifty gaped down below PDC/PDL. Price did not pullback to PDL at all. Shorted the TST of range high. Covered when a BOF happened at range low which was also RN. Short below range as PP which was already tested 4 times earlier. Even earlier BOF failed to move price more than 10 points to the upside.Covered on FTC below 8420.Immediately there was a TRAP to go short again. Hesitated to take it and missed.Rest of the day it was a BW around BRN. Can we expect a fall to 8200?

34 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Why a long in the morning. Market is selling
      Have a look at the Daily chart. Always try to enter when a CT move exhausts
      In a down trend sell the highs.BO entries fail even it is with the trend

      ST

      Delete
    2. My thoughts were :-It left like an exhaustion gap .More over XX50 area was a support in the HTF (channel low ) .

      rgds
      Kishore

      Delete
  2. Dear ST,

    Where do we enter TRAP pattern....below the swing low?? I re-entered below the swing low 8418 and exited at BRN. I was able to identify TRAP but didn't knew where exactly to enter. If this swing low was not there then my entry would haave been below previous swing low i.e. 8412??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On a good trend day,an entry just like a BOF works.
      But in an extended move, it may remain within the range without breaking earlier swing point
      Risk is always more on BO type entries

      ST

      Delete
  3. You entered PP around 8448. Why not at the break of 11:57 candle low? What was your stop at the time of entry...jst above RN??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was already short from 8470
      Above entry bar high

      ST

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    2. Dear ST,

      My doubt was regarding your second trade when you shorted below range low/RN.

      Delete
    3. Sorry. I think you are referring to this entry
      http://screencast.com/t/3bMSjlzeO

      ST

      Delete
  4. Excellent trades (especially the first one)! I wish it falls to 8200 :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Major support FLIP in daily is at 8200
      May all your wishes come true

      ST

      Delete
  5. Hi ST,
    Please comment on my trades
    http://tradingdecisionpoints.blogspot.in/2014/12/09122014.html

    rgds
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stay with the trend. Instead of going for a BO look for exhaustion at the other end
      Try to capture A to B
      http://www.niftynirvana.blogspot.in/2012/06/trends.html

      ST

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    2. thanks ST
      What is the difference between yours and mine 2nd trades .
      A minor TRAP ?

      rgds
      Kishore

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    3. Not much difference
      Today I was lucky, you were not

      ST

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  6. What would have made take CT trade at around 14:30 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do not go CT on these kind of trend days.
      You can go CT on days where day traders are in control
      Here massive selling is going on by positional traders
      Short covering by the day traders will not have an impact
      Yesterday BOF of BRN 8500 did not work

      ST

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    2. ST,

      How can we differentiate between positional selling and intraday selling?

      Regards
      Bharat

      Delete
    3. Look at the daily chart. price falling breaking the pivot low
      Price has started correcting

      ST

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    4. ST,
      Why doesnt this reflect in the volumes.
      When positional traders are active there should be some difference in volumes right .
      If I go through the historical charts I cannot identify those .

      rgds
      Kishore

      Delete
    5. May not be broad based selling.
      Infy is more responsible it seems

      ST

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  7. ST,

    After almost 100 pts fall yesterday and 50 pts fall day before yeserday you didnt expected range day today ... we also had gap down opening.too. why where you looking to short at test of range high in range day ? The second trade where you enter considering pressure play Wasnt the look like a channel to you. I missed the entire move today looking to above thought process. Kindly entlighten me

    Thanks and regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We sell the range highs whether it is a trend day or a range day
      Expectation was a range. As price action unfolds we have to change the bias
      The level was very strong RN+ NS BRN 8400 that is why it held for a long time

      ST

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  8. What was your thought process for not considering TST around 11:00 as TP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was only a TST. It bounced quickly more than I expected.
      There was no point in covering it around 63 for such a small gain
      So decided to stay with it

      ST

      Delete
  9. Hi ST,

    what was your initial SL for TT trade?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sold at 8470 with SL at 80
      Then brought down to 72

      ST

      Delete
  10. Rajesh,
    Thanks for your explanation.
    I went short @8470 around 10.42 and waited patiently by not booking profits and covered @ 8395.
    With kind regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On a trend day, try to stay with the trend
      80% of profit will come from 20% of the trades

      ST

      Delete
  11. Hi ST,
    . If one did not take the TST short where you took, we will go for entry below 11 or 11:27 which would have failed though entries were below xx50. Then to take the short below 11:57 would be tougher because it would look like a BW around xx50. Would you please explain how we should be look for entries if we did not take the TST short that you took.

    Also, how do we differentiate between a BW and a PP? Thanks for your help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BW is a range formed around a DP. Here there was no DP and hence no BW
      RN and NR BRN was giving support there. Here price did not make a range at all
      Price was sliding by making lower highs. No way to know which attempt is going to break
      Wait for two three attepts and go for it
      How to distinguish between a BW and a DP? Dont know.
      BW is a kind of range and PP an entry tactics. A PP can be used on a BW also

      ST

      Delete
  12. I goofed up like many others .. long at BPB of IRH. no screen time rest of the day. But lessons learnt from all the above comments and your responses. Thanks ST.
    http://niftytradediary.wordpress.com/2014/12/10/9-dec-2014/

    ReplyDelete

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