There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Thursday, January 15, 2015

15012015


This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis 
Nifty gaped up above PDH and started sliding. I was looking to go long at a support and went long when it found support at NS BRN area.Price reacted at DO but managed to break it. TP at BRN when second test failed. TST of BRN was another good opportunity to go long. Missed. Failed to capture the final quick fall also.
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26 comments:

  1. UnknownJanuary 15, 2015 at 3:40 PM

    Hi ST
    Where would have been the entry for TST BRN. On immediate TST or above swing high??

    Thanks
    TBP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 3:46 PM

      On a trend day use all the signals to board the train
      You can buy at 8500 with a SL at 8490

      ST

      Delete
  2. xrtrader1January 15, 2015 at 3:45 PM

    Thanks ST..

    ReplyDelete
  3. Homer_23January 15, 2015 at 3:58 PM

    Hi Rajesh,
    I took an entry at 10 am on 3rd candle, thinking that this is the range extreme. Market soon went further down, I scratched the trade. What was wrong with my entry and thought process. Also, I took 2nd trade where you took and TP at 50 points. Please guide

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 5:51 PM

      After such a huge gap up there will always some imbalance and fluctuations
      Signals during these period cannot be trusted fully. Possibility of a stop out is always high
      Your second trade was short I assume. Stay away and avoid CT trades on a trend day.
      The problem is that people wont change strategy as per the market situation
      Trend traders gave back all the money they earned in range bound markets. Range traders lose all the money they earned fading trends. We need to fade the ranges and trail the trends.

      ST

      Delete
  4. UnknownJanuary 15, 2015 at 4:04 PM

    Sir,

    1.) First long I missed as I felt a channel was forming... But I did take long above DO and exited at BRN,.

    2.) I took short where you exited (below 8500) in your first trade. I knew trend was clear up but I considered two factors for short.. First, price got immediately rejected from this level in day's opening bar itself which suggest heavy resistance here... Second, as many people were long from day low, I thought this will provide enough order flow to send price down at least upto level where you marked DO.
    Please suggest where was I wrong.

    3.) You said you missed final quick fall.. But you have mentioned various times earlier on also that you don't initiate trade on round numbers unless they coincide with some DP or range extremes .? Am I missing something here ?

    Thanks and Regards,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 6:06 PM

      1.It was a good trade. I too suspected a channel. entered after price went flat for half an hour and a small BOF happened
      2.Nothing wrong with the thoughts. But this will work only when day traders are in control. Here the rally was triggered by fundamental factors and long term players in control. They will buy into all dips
      3.It was a FTC. FTC can happen at any place. We are betting on critical mass of day traders covering at the fag end. I hesitated because market was not in control of day traders.

      ST

      Delete
  5. Trader PaiJanuary 15, 2015 at 4:08 PM

    Hi ST,
    The place where you took long looked to me as a channel .
    And why didn't you take BOF IRL long before your entry .
    I took a BOF long around 10 o'clock and got stopped out

    thanks n rgds
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 5:12 PM

      It was a soft trend down. I expected the fall to get arrested at NS BRN or BRN
      I waited till the slide stopped and found a minor BOF after trading flat for half an hour

      ST

      Delete
    2. Trader PaiJanuary 15, 2015 at 5:22 PM

      ST,
      What is a softtrend and the difference between a soft trend and a channel ?

      thanks
      Kishore

      Delete
    3. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 5:57 PM

      Channel is a soft trend where price do not respect flips

      ST

      Delete
    4. BhavirJanuary 16, 2015 at 12:40 AM

      I was even worse .. took 3 attempts to finally get it right on such a brilliant trend day :(
      https://niftytradediary.wordpress.com/2015/01/16/15-jan-2015-were-not-good-enough-to-be-disappointed-were-bad-enough-to-get-to-work/

      Delete
    5. BhavirJanuary 16, 2015 at 10:07 AM

      Sir - any tips on how to manage such times when bias is high and multiple BOF looking signals fail :( [they even made new swing highs enticing me to enter :) ]

      Delete
    6. SMART TraderJanuary 16, 2015 at 1:41 PM

      The only way to avoid this is to wait and find the exact level that acts as S/R. Buy or sell at the level and keep your stop beyond noise.Pre accept your risk and stay with the trade . Tighten the stop only after price moves in favour a reasonable distance.But psychologically difficult to execute.
      Today your third trade worked. It can also fail . No guarantee. It is better to pre accept the risk and stay. For that entry should be at the exact level or near. What matters is your ability to identify the levels and the ability to read price action at the level. This will improve if we do it for a long period, I believe

      ST

      Delete
  6. tRaDeR_BJanuary 15, 2015 at 4:20 PM

    Hi ST,

    Check out a EURCHF chart online.A big fall

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 5:01 PM

      Swiss franc is appreciating against all currencies.
      Swiss shares have fallen 10 % and entire Europe is in red

      ST

      Delete
  7. TrekkieJanuary 15, 2015 at 5:38 PM

    Thanks ST. I got in above 10:55, was it too late?

    ReplyDelete
  8. athshreeJanuary 15, 2015 at 6:13 PM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-15/snb-unexpectedly-gives-up-cap-on-franc-lowers-deposit-rate.html
    this is the reason for europe

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 15, 2015 at 6:31 PM

      Thanks.
      Do not know how it is going to affect world markets.
      No worries at all. No positions and no plans for a Swiss vacation

      ST

      Delete
  9. Trader PaiJanuary 15, 2015 at 8:14 PM

    ST,
    Presently the trend is down right ?

    thanks n rgds
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SMART TraderJanuary 16, 2015 at 8:52 AM

      No.As of now bias is positive. Down fall was just a correction of the up move
      Bias will depend on the open. If it gaps down below and gets accepted below BRN bias will change to negative
      If it opens and climbs above BRN bias will remain bullish as price remains in yesterday closing range 8500-8550
      Bias depends on whether price is trading in a higher/lower range and the last DP crack
      A gap down is probable due to global cues

      ST

      Delete
    2. SMART TraderJanuary 16, 2015 at 9:36 AM

      Now price has settled in a lower range. Bias bearish. But Daily still in rally mode
      Buying likely to emerge as price move down and approach PDL. If price moves above BRN and gets accepted bias will change positive

      ST

      Delete
    3. TrekkieJanuary 16, 2015 at 9:41 AM

      awesome, thank you ST.

      Delete
  10. Trader PaiJanuary 16, 2015 at 3:52 PM

    thanks ST

    ReplyDelete

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