30052014

Traded the continuous chart. Nifty opened within previous day range. IR formed. Did not attempt the BO trade of IRH .Missed the BOF of IRH as it moved very fast.First trade was a short of HOD on BOF. TP when price failed to go below RN. BOF of LOD/RN gave a long signal. Stopped out below the entry bar. Did not take any other trades as I suspected a channel. Ignored NS levels as there was too much fluctuation in premium.

29052014

Another expiry. There was no choppiness. Smooth trending price action. Nifty opened within previous day range. IR formed. Skipped the break of IRL as there was PDL and BRN below. Went short on BPB of BRN. Entry was too late and had to scratch. Skipped the next two BOF trades. There was no momentum for the BOF of BRN and next one was into a BRN on expiry day.Further there was not much space. Short on break of range low. TP at the extreme low (Last trade entry was on the previous bar. Marked it wrongly)

28052014

Nifty opened within previous day range. IR formed . Traded the entire day within this 10 point range. Nifty attempted to break out of the range many times but failed. All the three trades failed to move. I was able to scratch all of them without damage to the account.

27052014

Nifty opened within previous day closing range and traded within it for the entire day. BOF of BRN/PDL gave a long signal. Scratched the trade as it did not move. BOF of range high gave a short. TP at BRN. Another long on the BOF of BRN also ended as a scratch trade.

26052014

I was not watching the market live. There were some good opportunities on hindsight  analysis

23052014

Nifty gaped up above BRN and NS BRN levels.Went long on the BPB of PDH. TP when second attempt to go above 7380 failed. Went short on the retest of 7380 as FTC. TP at PDH. Another short on the break of PDH to the downside after a pull back to NS RN.TP at LOD. Long on break of PDH to the upside . Tp at NS RN level which acted as strong resistance earlier.

22052014

Nifty opened near BRN and sold. IR formed. Avoided long above IRH/BRN as PDH and NS BRN was very close. A long on BPB of IRH over NS BRN. Trade failed. Exited when second push failed. Then there was a TRAP. Avoided as the earlier BPB proved there was no follow up buying. Short on BPB of PDH. When it broke BRN, thought it will reach IRL. Covered at 20 point profit.There is no conviction in the market. Too much overlapping of bars

21052014

Nifty opened within previous day range at BRN. Attempted to go down. PDC gave strong support. Long on break of BRN. Trade did not move beyond the first bar. Scratched. Short on the BPB of PDL. Covered at a 20 point profit. Did not attempt to trade the up move as there were too many levels above. In hind sight BO after the complex pullback was a good opportunity.

20052014

Nifty opened within previous day range. IR formed. Went long above IRH. I was targeting PDH,but price went near  RN 7350. Exited when price started falling. Short on failure of PDH to arrest the fall. TP on BOF of IRL/PDC. Then Nifty traded in a tight range for a long time. Tried a long on break of BRN but had to exit at a loss. Another long on next breakout. Closed when price failed to remain above NS BRN. Hesitated and missed the BOF of PDH short.

19052014

Nifty Gaped up above BRN within previous day closing range. Missed the BOF short of BRN. It was a neat 60 point down move to PDL. Went long on break of RN 7250 as BOF of PDC/PDL. TP when price failed to remain above BRN 7300

16052014

I was expecting choppy crazy moves today.But market moved smoothly and respected the DPs especially BRN. I did not trade in the morning session. Skipped the BPB of BRN 7400 and BOF/FTC of BRN 7600. Went short on BPB of BRN 7400 on break of RN 7350. Covered on BOF of BRN and PDH at 100 point profit.Not at all comfortable trading these moves with 100+ point candles. 

Travel Break

I am on the move.I Will be back on Friday the 16th. Take care and trade well

Market may not be in control of the habitual day traders

Do not expect decision points to work well

Before He Trades.

Fuzzy Process

Fuzzy logic is an approach to computing based on many values rather than the usual "true or false”. Traditional binary logic accommodates only true or false values. It can be either zero or one. Fuzzy logic can assume any value between one and zero. It deals with reasoning that is approximate rather than fixed and exact.

There are many things common in both probability and fuzzy logic But these both are not same Probability measure whether an event occur or not but fuzzy logic measure the degree to which an event can occur. Fuzzy logic deals with the reasoning instead of exact decision so it revolves around approximation. We can process incomplete data with it.

Decision making in trading is a Fuzzy process rather than a Binary process. Everything is not in black and white. There will always be shades of gray. That is why coding a discretionary method into a computer program is almost always impossible.

A binary logic process cannot be applied in many real life situations.For example, ten thousand grains make a heap. What if we remove a grain from it? Won’t it be a heap then? Coming to trading, we need space for the trade to move. How much space do we need? Say 12 points. What if it is only 11 points? Skip the trade? We need critical mass to get trapped. How far it should move in one direction to make a critical mass? Say 40 points. What if it has moved only 35 points? Avoid the trade?

In trading, there are too many variables that can affect the outcome of a trade, known and unknown. Trying to make rules for each one of them is not at all possible and is not practical. Then what is the way out? Don’t worry. Our brain excels in it. Fuzzy logic seems closer to the way our brains work. We aggregate data and form a number of partial decisions which we aggregate further into a higher decision.

Then how to train the brain for that? Only solution is deliberate practice paying attention to the relevant variables until the brain gets hard wired. Till then we are going to struggle.

09052014

Nifty opened within the previous day Barbed Wire and broke BRN. Went long on BO pull back of BRN. Entry was on break of PDH. Then it was trailing till the end. There was no confusion at all. TP near NS RN 6850.

08052014

Nifty opened within previous day range. BOF of BRN gave a short signal. TP at PDC/PDL/NS RN 6650.
Missed the sudden up move as there was no reliable signal for a CT trade. Short on BOF of BRN/IRH. Again covered near PDL. Tried a long here. Entry was too early and exit too late. Stopped out below PDL. Rest of the day it was a Barbed wire around NS RN/PDC/PDL

07052014

Nifty opened below PDC. IR formed between PDC and PDL. Went short on the break of PDL. TP around 6710.Then there was a BOF of range high. You may call it a TRAP or a complex pull back.Closed the trade when price refused to go below the range low. I was looking to go long on BOF of BRN 6700, but ended taking a BPB of BRN. TP at NS RN 6650.

06052014

Nifty gaped up above PDC. First candle acted as IR. Short on BOF of IRH. TP when break of RN/IRL failed. Avoided long as there was too much of chop above. Went short on BO of earlier swing low. Trade did not move . Came back and stopped me out above RN. BOF of RN was a TRAP which I missed. Went long on BOF of PDC and TST of NS BRN 6700. TP at RN

05052014

Nifty opened near PDL and attempted to move down. BOF of PDL gave a long signal. Long on break of PDC. TP when price broke below RN. Then nifty came down unexpectedly and gave another long trade. BOF of  PDC/PDL. This trade did not move as expected. covered at a 10 point profit when second push to RN failed. Could not capture the rest of the up move. Short on BOF of  PDH on break of HOD. TP at 6735, NS BRN area.

02052014

Nifty opened above PDC. and chopped around the whole day. Attempted a short trade into the fluid. BOF of PDC/Ns BRN Stopped out above PDC. No other trades.