30042014

Nifty opened above PDC and ran away. Could not capture the up move.Price made 4 attempts to break above PDH and failed. FTC above PDH gave a short signal. Price hovered around BRN for a long time. I was expecting a second leg down through the fluid. Finally price broke down and I covered at DO. Attempted another short on BPB of PDL into the fluid. My target was BRN. A sudden 20 point pull back scared me. But there was no follow up.Flip held well. TP at BRN. Finally a long BOF trade of BRN. It moved more than I expected.

29042014

Nifty opened within previous day range. 70 point down fall was too quick and unexpected. Could not capture it. Went long on the BO of range High.Could have entered long on the BOF of Range Low Exited at a small profit. Entered short on BOF of  BRN 6800. Nifty retraced the entire up move quickly. TP at RN 6750. Did not attempt any other trade.

28042014

Nifty opened near PDC. First candle acted as IR. Skipped the BOF of IRH as there were three supports below . PDL/IRL, BRN and NSRN 6750. Long on BOF of BRN, PDL. Trade did not move scratched. Attempted two more trades. BO of IRH and BOF of IRH,PDC.These trades also failed. Scratched.

New Look YTC

YTC is now back with a new design. Lance has really done a wonderful job. I really loved the new look.It is so fresh and clean . Now it has become easy to read and navigate .

I urge all my readers to go through the archives. It contains hundreds of no nonsense articles written by Lance Beggs since May 2008. My next few weekends are scheduled for this.Going to re-read and rediscover Check the new site

25042014

Traded continuous charts today. Nifty opened above PDH. This is due to premium factor. IR formed. BOF of IRL was inviting with two nice pin bars. But trade did not move. scratched.Went short on break of PDH. As I expected price was able to break RN. Then trailed till PDL. Nifty traded in a range below PDL for a while. Long PP trade did not work. Scratched.

23042014

Expiry day . Did not attempt any trades today. Avoided the morning long due to PDH,RN and NS RN. Afternoon it was all chop.

22042014

Nifty opened near PDC and tried to move down. First candle was an MC which acted as the IR. Long on break of IRH on BOF of PDC. Price failed to move to PDH, my target. Scratched. Shorted the break of range low . I thought there will be enough stops below this area to move price below LOD. Exited at a 3 point loss. Did not attempt the up move as there was not much space. Another short on BOF of HOD and TST of  PDH.Exited at a small profit when it bounced back from range low.Very choppy 20 point range.

21042014

Nifty gaped above PDH. IR formed. Price  made a Barbed wire around NS BRN for a long time. Went long on BOF of  PDH/IRLBut it failed to move beyond NS BRN. Scratched. Long on the BO of IRH. TP near  RN 6850

Trading Hesitation

In trading, execution consistency always precedes consistent profitability. Execution consistency is the ability to act at the right time in the right manner. A method with an edge and a great trading plan is not sufficient to make us profitable. We need to execute the plan flawlessly without hesitation.

This is a major roadblock all the traders face. It is extremely frustrating to see an identified trade moving without us. Why we are not able to pull the trigger at the right time? There could be many reasons. Some of them are no trust in the method, fear of loss or being wrong, Perfectionism and past bitter experiences. May be we are having one or more of these problems.

It is extremely important to identify the real problem and take corrective measures. But it is easier said than done. In my opinion this hesitation is due to the interference of the sub conscious. Our sub conscious is not synchronized with our analytical; rational conscious mind. The real challenge is convincing our sub conscious that we are acting on our best interest so that it will not override. Till then our execution is going to get blocked.

Is there a practical actionable solution for this problem? All these hesitation will get solved automatically once we become consistently profitable. But we cannot achieve consistency without proper execution. This is an egg chicken syndrome. Where do we start?

The best way is to sit beside an expert profitable trader and watch him trade and make profits. Most of us are not lucky enough to have such a person in our family and friends circle. Very few people can join a proprietary trading concern and get trained. So we have to try less efficient methods.

What I am doing is, I have set aside some amount as tuition fee. I don’t care even if I lose the entire amount trading. I am currently trying to execute my method flawlessly not caring about the profits with minimum allowed position size. Of course I am progressing well but it is taking more time than I thought earlier.

Do you have hesitancy in executing the identified trades? How you are dealing with it? If you could overcome it, how did you do that? Your feedback will help a lot of novice traders.

.

17042014

Nifty opened within previous day range. First candle acted as IR. Long on the break of this tight trading range above NS BRN 6700. TP when price failed to go above 6760 . Another long on the TRAP pattern. A BOF of RN 6750 and MSP. TP at BRN 6800.

16042014

Nifty opened within previous day range. IR formed. FTC/BOF above IRH gave a short signal. Short on crack of MSP. FTA was RN 6750 and I was ready to deal with a bounce. Price broke RN,IRL.PDL and hit BRN. TP at BRN 6700. Another short on BOF of MSP which is also NSBRN 6700. TP below 6700.

15042014

I did not trade today. In Kerala we were celebrating "Vishu" the New Year Day.In hindsight analysis there were two trades. First trade BOF of PDH was too fast and unexpected. Very difficult to catch this. Then a Barbed Wire around RN. I would have taken the Breakout and scratched later.

11042014

Nifty Gaped down below PDL. Found support at NS RN 6750. IR formed. Bias was bearish. Short on BOF of BRN. Trade did not move beyond IRL. Scratch. Nifty unexpectedly broke BRN, HOD of that time and PDC/PDL. There was no followup buying. Short below the big MC. This one also stalled at IRL. Expected a strong reversal at the last half an hour. Long above BRN. This one also failed.

10042014

There was no follow up after yesterday's trend move. Nifty remained range bound. Attempted two trades. These trades did not work. Went short on break of IRL. Target was BRN. But BO failed and stopped me out. Went long on break of PDH,but scratched it later. There were too many levels within 30 points. Did not attempt any other trades.

09042014

Nifty gaped up above PDH but failed to move up. Skipped this BOF as there were strong supports below. RN, NSBRN and PDC. Later there was a BOF of range low. Skipped this also due to PDH and IRH above. Finally long on break of IRH. Thought it will stop at 6800 as now a days range is limited to 50 points. Nice move up . TP at NS BRN 6800

HFT Humbug

Michael Lewis’ new book “Flash Boys” have brought in the High Frequency Traders to the centre stage again. Financial media and forums are abuzz again with hot discussions. General opinion is against the HFTs and many argue markets are rigged against the average retail trader by HFTs

I don’t think HFTs are threat to the retail trader. They are operating in an ultra lower time frame that we cannot even imagine. Their activities are just noise for us. Does an hourly chart trader care about the moves in 3M charts? No. Then why should we care about the millisecond time frame?

Further most of the HFTs are operating in niche segments. They are into cross exchange arbitrage and index arbitrage mainly. Algos sniff around and spot thin imbalances and feed on the price differences. In fact HFTs will speed up the price discovery and will make the market more liquid.

Then who is making this hue and cry? Who is shedding crocodile tears in the name of the retailer? It is none other than the old market makers. They were making money on ask bid differences for centuries and now is on the verge of extinction. Even Goldman is trying to sell its market making operation. They are asking for $30 Million for something they bought at $ 6.5 Billion. Anybody interested?

Watch the video. It shows the cross exchange trades executed in the stock of “Merck” during 10 milliseconds that is 1/100^th of a second on May 16, 2013. The animation is slowed down by a factor of 40000.The fastest order feed by a human will take 215 milliseconds. HFTs are here to stay. We can’t compete with them and we need not compete with them. So don’t worry about them.

07042014

Nifty opened near PDC and tried to move up. IR formed. Avoided shorting below IRL as PDL was near. Short on BPB of PDL. TP at BRN. Then got trapped twice. On a BPB long and BOF short.First trade scratched and second one stopped out. Then another long on a TRAP . TP at PDL.

Reading: Train Your Brain

It is my opinion that all trading strategies and decision making are brain-based synaptic strategies. Because the human brain has an infinite capacity to change, organize and reorganize itself, progression to trading excellence is possible.

It is only through intense, diligent and totally committed practice through many years and many market cycles that the trader advances to the state of disciplined excellence. This excellence is the result of training the synaptic connections within the thinking and feeling areas of the brain. As a consequence of this training, the trader will be able to recognize, process instantly and execute the trade with little or no cognitive or affective dissonance.

The brain is the most powerful structure in the known universe and the only trading tool that the trader needs to become an expert.          ( Click to read more)

Dr.Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D.

04042014

Nifty opened within previous day range. IR formed.Avoided the short below IRL. It was a nice SS trade opportunity. Price tested PDL twice and moved up. Long on break of IRL/RN into the fluid. TP near PDC.Went short on BOF of IRH and TST of PDC. A LOL.Covered at a small profit as price caught up within IR. Next down move was fast and furious. Could not catch it. Tried a long on BOF of PDL. RN/IRL was a barrier. I thought the fluid may help. Scratched it.

03042014

Nifty opened near PDC and sold.IR formed. Pulled back till NS RN and fell again. Skipped the short below IRL as there was PDL below it. Shorted below PDL only to scratch the trade later when price bounced from RN 6750. Avoided the BOF long of PDL as IRL was too close .Finally there was a long trade BOF of LOD after testing NS BRN 6700. Did not get a proper entry point. Entered above PDL. Made 10 points. Missed the major portion of the move.

02042014

After the gap up above PDH, Nifty traded within the IR . Finally it broke below the range low. Avoided the BO as I felt market will bounce back from RN 6750. So waited for a pull back. BO failed and entered long. Covered at a 25 point profit

01042014

First trading day of the financial year ended up as too choppy. Did not attempt any trades till the RBI announcement is over. There was no way to capture the TST down move.Price hit PDL and bounced. Second push down ended as a BOF. Long when price re entered the range. Quick up move through the fluid. Could not exit at RN as my trading terminal froze. Exited when price fell inside the range. Price consolidated near NS BRN. Attempted a short on break of this range. Thought it will go to PDL,but had to reverse it above the entry bar. No other trades attempted.