Thank You. All

The year 2013 is coming to an end. This year was an eventful one for me both personally and professionally. I am happy that I could nurture "Nifty Nirvana" well during the year despite many personal issues.The readership has really exploded. The book was accepted well by the readers it seems. More than 1500 downloads so far. Much more than my expectations.

The blog greatly helped in the evolution of the Decision Point method.Apart from that the blog provided me so many opportunities to interact with amazing people from around the world which include many well known traders.At the moment I would like to thank all the readers of Nifty Nirvana.I am very grateful to you for supporting this blog and contributing your ideas.

I believe that I have in some small way made a contribution to the trading  community that has given me so much.I assure you that I will strive to deliver valuable content consistently  in future also. I pray for your continued support. Thank You All

Wish you all a happy and prosperous 2014
 

31122013

Nifty gaped up within previous day range. Went short on the break of IRL. Scratched the trade when price bounced from swing high. Another short on BOF of IRH. Closed the trade later at a 10 point profit. The whole day Nifty was within a 12 point range.

30122013

Nifty gaped up above PDH, but could not stay there. Went short on BOF of PDH on break of PDC. TP around 6345. Then a barbed wire around 6350 (NS BRN 6300) for a long time.Tried a short on the BOF of range high. Scratched it. Another short on break of LOD . Expected to break PDL and move into the fluid. Scratched this trade also as the trade did not move as expected.

2014,The YTC

New Year is round the corner. For most of us it is time to take new resolutions and start chasing goals only to flame out soon. Why?

We are doing it wrong. We are just chasing dreams. We never cared to define a process to achieve the goal. Discipline or will power is not going to work here. Committing to the process is what makes the difference.

While cooking, we need to follow a recipe. Even for making a cup of coffee, there are certain well defined steps to be followed. In the beginning we may not get the desired results but still we need to finish the process. Stopping the process half way is not going to give us any results.

Coming to trading, we do not need level 3 data, costly computers or the latest version of charting software to trade successfully. These are all excuses we find to procrastinate and delay taking action. We are afraid of failure. Preparations to get something done should end somewhere.  It is high time that we stop searching and start doing.

First step is to select a suitable method and commit to it. Before risking money in the market ensure the selected method is working well. There are so many methods in public domain that we can use as a template to develop our own thing. Do not waste your hard earned money unless you trust the structure and tactics completely. Once you select the method trust it and commit to it completely.

Then eliminate all the unwanted things and stay out from distractions. Trading forums and chartrooms are doing more harm than good. These can be helpful in acquiring some basic knowledge at the initial stages but becomes a distraction later. Too much of conflicting information is too bad for our trading. So called discussions will drain our emotional capital.

Knowing something is not enough. We must act on it. It is not a secret that 90% of the people you find on our trading forums have not executed a single trade in their life time. They will read the trade and will never trade the trade. Remember trading is a skill you can learn only by doing. Just start doing it. There will be road blocks and hindrances. Don’t worry about it. We can deal with it as we move along.

As traders we must always be concerned about two things, Time and Capital. Capital includes our emotional capital.  Are we making efficient use of our time and capital? We are wasting too much of time on things that make little difference. Still we are searching for new tactics and debating unrelated topics at the forums wasting time and emotional capital.

Now let us focus on the execution. Trading consistency always follows execution consistency. Let 2014 be the “Year of Trading Consistency”. Let us commit to the process. Let us follow the recipe.  Let us take massive action to achieve this goal.

Commit, Eliminate and Act

I wish all the readers of “Nifty Nirvana” a Happy and Prosperous New Year

Break !!!

Taking the  much needed break. I am on a leisure trip with my family. Will be back only on 27th.

This time we are visiting Munnar, Madurai, Palani and Valparai.Trade well and take care.

20122013

Nifty opened near PDC and refused to go below PDC.First candle acted as IR. Going long was not an option as there were BRN and MSP above. There was a BOF of BRN skipped it as it was counter bias and IRH,PDC,IRL,PDL as barriers below. Went long on the BPB of MSP.Covered around 6240. Nifty traded in a range for a while. BOF of range low ( MSP) was a long signal. Waited as there was no momentum. Finally went long on the BPB of range High.Captured the entire 40 point move and covered at BRN 6300.

19122013

Nifty Opened above PDH and sold. Fall was so fast that I could not t get an entry  on BOF  PDH. Went short on BPB of BRN. I expected a second leg down move. Covered near PDL. Tried a short when nifty reversed from the flip and breakout above the range high failed. Scratched it.Avoided the long as there were BRN and MSP as barriers  I was expecting a BOF of MSP or BRN. Short on BOF of BRN. This gave some 20 points

18122013

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Announcement day. Stayed out till the announcement is over. Tried a short on FTC of vertical move. The fluid below was the attraction. But BRN 6200 option strike lend support. Long above the consolidation. This one also ended as a scratch. BOF range low was a long opportunity. Skipped it as it was very  late. This moved well without me.PDC/PDL wrongly marked as LOD

17122013

Nifty gaped up above PDH. Counter trend outside gap. Went long on the break of first master candle. I was very confident about the trade but it failed. Thought of going short when third time TST occurred but hesitated to pull the trigger.Later Nifty traded in a tight trading range. Shorted the BOF of range high. Price broke PDC as well as PDL. Exited when market started chop.
@ Kavi. Second trade is your pattern. Isn't it ? Hope you traded it

16122013

Nifty gaped down below PDL. First signal was a BPB of  PDL short below the first Master candle. Skipped the trade as the trade was into the option strike 6150 of NS and I was expecting a range move till WPI announcement is over.BO of IR failed. Went long above IRH. Closed when Nifty failed to settle above BRN. Attempted two more long trades on BOF of IR and BOF of LOD. Both the trades did not move as expected. Whole day Nifty was in a 25 point range.

High Low Range

If you are a day trader , you might have noticed that recently it has become very difficult to trade intraday moves. Nifty gaps ups or down and spend the whole day in a tight trading range making short term trading difficult.

One reason  is after the introduction of XX50 option strikes, the play ground has shrunk. Most of the daily moves are due to the action of the day trading crowd. Big boys and institutions were not interested in these  moves between the option strikes which we called BRN. Now they are defending the xx50 levels also

Another reason is volatility compression. Markets are cyclical and alternate between high volatility and low volatility. We are going through a low volatility phase. This is temporary and will pass

Sunil Saranjame of timamo has written an excellent article on this phenomenon.Click to read 

Download the E-book

Finally here is the book for a weekend read. Being regular readers of the blog, I am afraid, you will be disappointed with the book. In fact there is nothing new in it as I have already shared everything through the blog. Anyway please go through it and let me know your feedback. I am more interested to know the negatives than the positives so that I can focus on the negatives next time.

I have already written more than 130 articles in the blog for the last two years. I am monitoring the incoming traffic to the blog regularly and I have more than 250 regular followers. I am very sad to learn that I am not getting any hits through  social networks like Twitter,Facebook and Google+. This shows that the readers of this blog never cared to share any of these posts through their social networks.

I request you to help me reach out.Please do share the book and promo video. Just click on the buttons below the posts to share it through your Twitter, Facebook and Google+. While sharing on Facebook, select the right thumbnail.  Thank You.

Download

Dynamic Levels

There is too much of confusion about IR and other levels. I will try to clarify. There are two types of decision points. Fixed and Dynamic. Fixed levels are past levels which will not change like PDL,PDC,PDH,DO etc.. Big round numbers are also fixed levels.Other current day levels are dynamic which will be revealed by the on going market action.

We trade the market as if it is in a range all the time.But many times we may need to take action before knowing the exact structure. In other words we have to trade the provisional or probable ranges or stand out. What we do is to assume a provisional range and take action.Later we may need to change these levels slightly. Go through today's price action

We will never know for sure where the orders are . So we start with provisional levels and modify it later. First we identify the IR. We ignore the lower tail and mark the round number as IRL. High of the pink box is IRH. If we want to go long above IRH then there is no way but to long above this box. It is a BOF. Later the boundaries get extended to  the green box.. Now there is no point in projecting the pink box to future. New levels are green box.extremes.

Likewise the purple box levels get modified to the blue box levels. There is no point in continuing with the old levels when dealing with future price action. It is not possible  for me to mark all the modifications on the chart. Most of the time the final levels are marked on the chart.

Decision points are not exact levels but minor zones. Do not mark it with a drawing pen. Mark with a highlight pen. Millions of people are executing countless strategies at the same time in markets. Expect some overshoot and overlap. Please do read my earlier article Brackets and Envelops

Hope I could convey what I wanted to say without confusing you. Otherwise let me know.

13122013

Nifty gaped down below PDL. IR formed.Did not attempted BPB of IRL as BRN was very near.Long on BOF of BRN. Scratched later. I was expecting a bounce on week end  after continuous fall. So skipped the short at IRL.

Vuca,Vuca.Hey

The word “Vuca” means “wake up” in Zulu language. But the acronym VUCA is originally a military term which became popular at the end of the cold war. Today it has become a widely used description of the current global economic situation. VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity

Volatility is turbulence and refers to the nature, speed and magnitude of change that is unpredictable. Volatility creates uncertainty where past events cannot be used to predict the future outcomes which make decision making difficult. Numerous and difficult to understand causes adds layers of complexity to the process which may lead to chaos and utter confusion. This leads to the last acronym Ambiguity. The end result of VUCA is the inability to capitalize opportunities and identify threats before it becomes lethal.

Companies worldwide are spending billions of dollars to train their managers to operate in VUCA environment. They mainly focus on another VUCA for this. Managers should have a clear Vision about the future of their institutions to counter volatility. Leaders must learn to look and listen to make sense of the volatility and to lead with vision. They must have proper Understanding of the big picture. Managers should have Clarity to counter chaos and take effective decisions. Ambiguity can only be countered by Agility, the ability to apply solutions quickly.

As day traders, we are operating in a VUCA environment from open to close everyday. We are taking countless decisions on a day today basis. How many crucial decisions a CEO or manager has to take during his tenure?, I wonder. In my humble opinion day trading must be included in the business school syllabi. Let them learn something from us.

Anyway, learn to navigate through the VUCA environment with Vision, Understanding, Clarity and Agility.

Remember the song Vuca,Vuca hey hey. Wake up, Wake up.

12122013

Nifty gaped down below PDL. IR formed. Did not short below the IR as BPB of PDL because of BRN 6300. I expected a range between PDL and BRN. Rest of the day Nifty was in a tight range of 13 points. Did not attempt the firsr BOF of BRN. Second one attempted and scratched.Thought of going long on the break of the Cigarette range high but did not due to IRL and PDL were  too close. Could capture the last BOF which gave good returns. .

11122013

Nifty Gaped down below PDL. Short on BPB of PDL. Stopped out of the trade. Tried a long on BO of MSP. It did not go beyond PDL/HOD/IRH. Scratched the trade. BOF of HOD was a nice short through the fluid. But missed it . Long on the BOF of LOD. Entered early as I suspected a reversal from MSP. But Nifty broke MSP and HOD . Nice move up

10122013

Nifty opened within previous day range. Sold and broke PDC and tested PDL. IR formed. Short below IRL . I expected it to move well through the fluid. TP when second push failed to extend. Another short at BPB of range low. This one failed.Stopped out for a point. Went long on the BOF of range low on break of MSP. Made 20 points.

09122013

Nifty gaped up 150 points well above PDH . I was looking for a FTC short. Market did not give an opportunity. There was a BOF of BRN. Skipped it as the initial move was very strong on the sell side. Went long on the BOF of IR. Later scratched the trade. BRN in between was resisting the up move.

06122013

Nifty opened near PDC. IR formed. Long on TST of PDL (BOF of PDC)on break of IRH. TP at BRN. Did not attempt the BOF of BRN short and TST of PDC long due to IRH. This level was 6250 NS. Finally short on BOF of BRN and TST of HOD. Scratched

A Video Promo

05122013

Nifty Gaped up above PDH. Failed to continue above IRH. Short when third attempt to go above 6320 failed. I was expecting a bounce from BRN. But it went further down. TP around 6280.

04122013

Nifty gaped down below PDL. Fist candle was an MC and acted as IR. Did not trade the BPB of IRH as PDC was very close. Went short on BOF of PDC/Range High/HOD. TP  around 6210.Missed the next move down. I was looking for a long above MSP.

03122013

Nifty opened within previous day range. It was trading around BRN 6200 of NS. Noticed two opportunities. Long above the morning MC and a short on BOF of Absorption level. Did not take them. Choppy day.

02122013

Nifty opened near PDC and spiked. did not channel as expected.Skipped  BOF of IR High as there was no space . Went long when the BOF failed.This spike acted as a range for the remaining day. Short on the BOF of range high. Covered the trade when price refused to go below IRH.